Crypto Market Mood Check: FEAR vs GREED for Naija Traders!

autor:Tim JawaidJune 27, 2025

Introduction: Your Brain Sabi Program You for Loss?

Imagine this: you dey walk for dark alley inside Lagos, you hear suspicious sound – your heart dey pound like ogene, your legs dey carry you comot sharp sharp. Na fear, dat ancient survival instinct. Now imagine say you just chop belleful for new restaurant for Abuja — you dey happy, and you go surely go back. You don see person buy cheap “magic internet coin” turn millionaire? Envy dey boil you, your hand dey itch to buy am. No be weakness — na human nature, our built-in software wey help us survive for thousands of years.

But here na the wahala: for today financial markets, especially crypto wey dey wild pass, dis ancient programs dey show face for wrong time and dey lead straight to loss of money. Almost all of us don experience dis cycle:

  • Envy/Hope: “Chai! Dat guy buy coins with ₦1.5 million, now e don build mansion for Lekki! I wan am too!” (Example 2021: Shiba Inu. Example 2025: same story with new meme coins like Dogwifhat (WIF) or Book of Meme (BOME), wey skyrocket 1000%+ for 2-3 days). We see others’ success and wan follow, no dey think about risk.
  • Euphoria/Greed: “Yes o! My coins don rise 50% for one week! I be guru! I need to buy more, na rocket to moon!” Feeling of say you no fit fail. Brain dey shout: “More! More!”
  • Fear/Panic: “Wetin?! Price don fall 30% for one hour?! Everybody dey sell! I need to comot quick quick before my money vanish!” Sense comot, survival instinct dey shout, “Run for your life!” We sell… usually at bottom.
  • Regret: “Ah! I buy at peak when everybody dey shout ‘Gbege!’ and sell at bottom when dem dey cry. Why I be mumu like this?”

Sound familiar? We all do am (and e dey okay!)

If you dey read dis and dey nod your head, you no be alone. Even as person wey write dis article sabi say memecoins na lottery with high risk, even with strategy, e don catch himself think, “Wetin if dis new memecoin na the one? Wetin if I miss am?” Na normal reaction. Why we dey sure like dis?

  • Personal experience: How many times your guys or family don ask you for 2023-2024: “Oga, you don hear about [new meme coin]? People dey make millions! How I fit buy am with my Opay?” Always after price don skyrocket.
  • Market data: Check charts. When big meme coin (whether na old DOGE or new PEPE) skyrocket, hundreds of small meme coins go follow rise. Why? Because crowd of newbies (retail investors) rush find “the next big thing,” hoping to repeat success. Dis mass movement na pure FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out).
  • Reaction to news: Take example from May 2025. Imagine say big tech company (like Flutterwave) announce test launch of dem token for new gaming metaverse. Headlines dey scream: “Flutterwave enter Web3!” Wetin happen? Price of dat metaverse platform token go jump 50-100% for few hours. People buy with emotion without understanding: wetin dey really happen? How big na de partnership? E get real benefit now? Often, news dey overrated, and after two days, price go return to original level or even fall pass. No mean say all news bad! E mean say emotional reaction of crowd dey exaggerated and short.

I don lose count how many times I hear people wan buy meme coins. And yes, na always after 100x pump.

Why Technical Analysis (Sometimes) Work? Na Because of How We Be!

You don ask yourself why patterns for price charts (head and shoulders, flags, triangles) sometimes work? Secret be say dem reflect mass psychology! Dis patterns form because large groups of people, under same emotions (fear, greed, hope), dey act predictably.

Example of FOMO for action (Wyckoff 2025 scheme): Big players (“whales”) sabi our FOMO tendency. See how dem fit use am:

  1. Accumulation: Whale dey quietly buy asset at low price.
  2. Growth (Markup): E start to buy well well, dey push price up artificially. Chart dey rise fine!
  3. Bait (FOMO phase): News of growth spread across Twitter and Nairaland. New investors see upward trend and fear say dem go miss profit. Dem rush buy asset, push price more up. Na exactly wetin whale want!
  4. Distribution: While everybody dey rejoice and buy at peak, whale begin sell im reserves at profit to newcomers.
  5. Decline (Markdown): Supply (whale sales) pass demand (newcomers don finish). Price begin fall. New investors panic and sell at loss, make fall worse. Whale don already make profit.

Here you fit see price chart of Flow wey focus on dis example. Image via CoinMarketCap.

Your Arsenal for 2025: How to Measure “Market Mood” and No Carry Last

To understand emotions na half battle. De other half be say you fit check wetin dey dominate market now: fear or greed? For 2025, we get powerful tools. Key rule: no ever depend on just one indicator! Combine dem like chef wey dey mix ingredients.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index:

[Current link: https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/]

Wetin be dis? De most popular “thermometer” of crypto market mood. E gather data from different sources (volatility, trading volumes, social media like Nairaland, surveys, Bitcoin dominance, etc.) and give number from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed).

How e dey work? Imagine scale from “cold fear” (0) to “full joy” (100). De index try measure where average investor dey for dis scale now.

How to use am for 2025?

  • Extreme values na warning sign: Long time for “Extreme Greed” zone (85+) fit mean correction (fall) dey come. Long time for “Extreme Fear” zone (25-) fit mean say bottom near and time to enter for brave people. BUT! No be exact timing! For 2021, index stay for “greed” long time before crash. For 2025, e fit jam for ‘greed’ long time during strong bull run. No sell just because of “greed”!
  • Trend dey important pass single value: Check if mood dey change. Shift from “fear” to ‘neutral’ or “greed” plus price rise fit confirm trend strength. Sharp drop for index plus price rise na alarm bell say something no balance.

Dis na only one indicator! Always confirm with other data (technical analysis, fundamental news, on-chain metrics).

Make profit from other people emotions.

Google Trends: [Current link: https://trends.google.com/]

Wetin be dis? Free tool wey show how often people worldwide dey search for words for Google.

How e dey work? Imagine say you fit count how many times people dey ask direction to shop for Computer Village. If crowd suddenly dey ask about one shop, e mean say something interesting dey happen (or loud advert). Same here: surge for searches like “Bitcoin,” “Ethereum,” “how to buy cryptocurrency with Paga,” or even meme coins like “buy Dogwifhat” show say ordinary people (retail investors) don get strong interest.

How to use am for 2025?

  • Peak interest = Peak FOMO? Historically, when searches for crypto keywords reach peak, e dey match market peaks (e.g., late 2017, spring 2021). When even people wey no sabi crypto before start dey ask well well, e fit mean market don overheat (FOMO).
  • Regional wahala: Check which countries dey search. Sudden spike from new region fit mean new demand dey come.
  • Compare terms: Check difference between “buy Bitcoin” and “sell Bitcoin.” De ratio fit show which mood dey win.

“Danfo driver rule”: Old stock market talk say, “When your danfo driver start dey give you stock advice, na time to sell!” For crypto: “When your guys wey no sabi anything about tech start dey ask how to buy latest meme coin, shine your eyes, correction fit happen.” Google Trends na objective measure for dis “danfo driver rule.”

Social Media and Data Analysis Platforms (Deep Dive):

Old services don vanish, na dis ones dey hot for 2025.

The TIE (https://www.thetie.io/):

Wetin be dis? Advanced platform wey specialise for crypto mood analysis. E analyse millions of messages for X (Twitter), Reddit, Telegram, Nairaland forums, and news sites live.

How e dey work? Complex algorithms (including AI) check tone of messages (positive, negative, neutral) and how strong. De platform create mood indexes for hundreds of crypto assets.

Key metrics (2025):

  • Sentiment Score: Number from 0 to 100, higher = more positive.
  • Sentiment Change: How mood don change recently (24 hours, 7 days). Sharp positivity rise fit mean price go rise (or e dey follow price rise), while sharp fall fit mean opposite.
  • Social Dominance: Wetin be percentage of all crypto talk wey dey about one asset (e.g., “Wetin be percentage of all Nigeria crypto tweets today wey mention Solana?”). High dominance dey follow FOMO.

How to use am? Look for differences (divergences). Example:

  • Price dey rise but positive mood for social media dey fall? E fit mean interest dey reduce even as price dey up — shine your eyes!
  • Price dey fall but negative mood no strong or even dey reduce? Panic dey calm down and asset fit bounce back.
  • Sudden, strong positive mood plus big news — short-term “pump” possible, but prepare for quick correction.

For newbies: Imagine The TIE na big microphone above all crypto talk for internet. E no only hear volume (how much people dey talk), but also mood (dem dey happy or angry?). Sudden changes for dis “crowd noise” fit hint where price go next.

LunarCrush (https://lunarcrush.com/):

Wetin be dis? Powerful platform wey analyse activity and mood for social media for thousands of crypto assets. Dem sabi for unique indexes.

Current metrics (2025):

  • Galaxy Score: Main thing for finding ideas! Score from 0 to 100. No be just popularity! Galaxy Score try find abnormally high social activity and positive mood compared to recent price and market. High Galaxy Score (especially >75) mean, “People dey talk well about dis asset, and e stand out, maybe price never reflect am yet.” E show potential interest before big move.
  • AltRank: Rank all altcoins from 1 (best) to 3000+ (worst) based on market data (trading volume for Binance, price changes) and social data (volume and activity). Low AltRank (e.g., top 50) na sign of strong current interest. But shine your eyes: asset fit dey top because of recent price pump (FOMO) wey don finish.

How to use am?

  • Searching for ideas: Look for high Galaxy Score (>70-75) to find assets wey people dey talk well about before dem blow. Always check fundamental reasons! Wetin people dey talk? Why?
  • Checking hype: High AltRank + High Social Activity + Sharp price rise = Possible FOMO peak. Be careful if you wan enter.
  • Tracking leaders: Who dey consistently for top of AltRank? Dem be current market favourites.

For newbies: LunarCrush na like radar. Galaxy Score try find “quiet” candidates wey go soon make noise (show price growth). AltRank show who be current celebrity for crypto market dance floor. Remember, most popular no be de one wey go dance longest!

Here’s search for keyword cryptocurrency. As you see, we don reach high level. Image via Google Trends.

Santiment (https://santiment.net/):

Wetin be dis? Powerful platform wey combine social data (mood, activity), on-chain data (wetin dey happen inside blockchains – money movement, address activity) and market data (prices, volumes). Na “Swiss knife” for analysis.

Current opportunities (2025):

  • Sanbase (Interactive Graphs): Main tool. You fit overlap many metrics for price chart. Example:
    • Social Volume: How many times per day dem mention asset for key sources? Volume peaks dey match important events or FOMO/FUD peaks.
    • Sentiment: Average tone of mentions (positive / negative).
    • Developer Activity: How much work dey happen for de project? (Important for long-term potential).
    • Large Transactions (Whale Transactions): Track big money movement between wallets and exchanges. E fit show whale actions (accumulation/distribution).
    • Average age of coins (MVRV, SOPR): Complex on-chain metrics wey show if investors dey hold for profit or loss, how “old” coins dey move. Dem help know overbought/oversold conditions.
  • Keywords: Like Google Trends but for crypto community. You fit track spikes for words like “airdrop”, “partnership”, “hacking”.

How to use am?

  • Looking for differences (main thing!): Price dey rise but social volume dey fall? Price dey fall but big investors (from on-chain data) dey buy? Price at peak but MVRV show strong overbought? Such differences na strong signals to be careful or find turning points.
  • Confirm trend: Price rise dey follow social volume and positive mood rise? E confirm movement strength.
  • Catch manipulation: Sudden surge of positive mentions for small project + sharp price rise + no real news = possible “pump”.

For newbies: Santiment na like super dashboard for crypto spaceship. E show not only speed (price), but also fuel (network activity), crew mood (social media), captains of other ships actions (whales). To sabi connect dis indicators na key to better navigation.

Dune Analytics (https://dune.com/):

Wetin be dis? E no be classic mood tool, but na powerful platform to analyse data from blockchain (on-chain data) and DeFi. Allow create and view custom dashboards.

How e dey work? Sharp analysts write queries (in SQL) to blockchain data and create clear graphs: how many coins dey move to exchanges (possible preparation to sell)? How many new addresses appear? How balances for big wallets (“whales”) change? Wetin be volumes for DeFi protocols?

How to use am to understand mood (2025)?

  • Exchange Flows: Big inflow of coins to exchanges (especially after price rise) fit mean say people wan sell (take profit). Big outflow from exchanges fit mean say dem wan hold long–term (HODL). Sudden inflows fit mean selling pressure dey come.
  • Network activity: Increase for new unique addresses wey dey transact na sign of new users (usually positive). Sharp fall fit mean interest dey cool.
  • DeFi metrics: Total Value Locked (TVL), trading volumes for decentralised exchanges (DEX), lending/borrowing activity. Growth na sign of trust and activity, fall fit mean capital dey comot or fear dey.
  • Whale Actions: Track big transactions (especially from/to exchanges or between wallets) fit show wetin biggest players dey plan.

For newbies: Dune na like X–ray or lie detector for blockchain. E show wetin people dey really do with coins (transferring, selling, locking for DeFi), not just wetin dem talk for social media. Combination of “words” (social) and “actions” (on-chain) give full picture.

Looking at dis picture you see say e no perfect. But as every analysis, you no fit depend on just one. No fit deny say dis indicator get way to show certain price movements and when you look well, you go see say mood dey turn negative before price dey fall. Dis fit partly explain as newbies dey rush market at top.

Workshop: How To Use All Dis Knowledge Now (May 2025)?

To sabi na good, but to use am better. Here na step-by-step approach:

  1. Check Your Own Emotion: Before any trade (especially impulsive one!) Ask yourself:
    • “How I dey feel now? Excitement? Greed (‘I go buy before e fly!’)? Fear (‘Make I sell quick before e fall more!’)? Envy (‘Everybody dey make money for dis memecoin, I no get!’)?”
  2. De “Stop Emotion” Algorithm: If you feel strong urge to buy/sell now, breathe deep 10 times. Comot from screen for 15 minutes. Then come back check situation with clear head.
  3. Check De “Market Pulse”:
    • Look Fear and Greed Index: Wetin be general atmosphere? Extreme values? How trend dey change?
    • Check Google Trends for keywords (“Bitcoin”, “Ethereum”, your asset name): Excitement dey (FOMO) or nobody send (apathy/fear)?
  4. Social Media and Data Analysis (Choose 1-2 tools):
    • The TIE / LunarCRUSH Galaxy Score: Positive mood too high for price? (Galaxy Score >75). Or strong negative during fall? Look for price differences!
    • Santiment / Dune: Wetin on-chain data talk? People dey buy “on low” (outflow from exchanges, accumulation)? Or dem dey panic sell (inflow to exchanges)? Wetin whales dey do? Differences between price and social/on-chain activity dey?
  5. Compare with Technical and Fundamental Analysis:
    • Charts (support/resistance, trends) confirm your idea?
    • Real news dey (partnerships, product updates, CBN decisions) wey explain price movements and mood? Or na just noise and FOMO/FUD?
  6. Make Wise Decision: Based on full picture (emotions under control + data), decide to buy, sell, hold or wait. Abeg no rush!

Here’s look for Cryptoradar. Image via Bison

How Emotions Work for Your Body (Simple Version):

When you see sharp price rise or bad news, your brain dey trigger reactions:

  • Amygdala: Your internal “danger detector” or “opportunity spotter” dey activate sharp sharp. E dey shout, “Problem! Run!” or “Chance! Grab am!”
  • Hormones: Adrenaline (fear, excitement) or dopamine (hope for gain, joy from buy/rise) dey release.
  • Prefrontal Cortex: Na your “wise boss.” But under emotion and hormones pressure, im signals dey weak or delay. Na why you dey act on impulse!

Tip: Train your wise boss! Meditation, deep breathing, following written investment plan (no change am!) — all dis dey help give sense time to wake up overcome emotion.

Cryptos sorted by Alrank. Image via LunarCrush.

Conclusion: You Fit Control Your Emotions!

Yes, we dey predictable. Yes, emotions dey move markets. But key word na “control”. You no need be puppet for your fear or greed.

  • Accept your humanity: E normal to feel FOMO, fear, or joy. No beat yourself.
  • Watch yourself: Learn to catch when emotions dey take over. Use “stop emotion” techniques.
  • Use data, no be instinct: Mood and on-chain tools for 2025 na your radar and shield. Dem help you see wetin dey happen through noise of emotions (yours and others’).
  • Think with plan: Get investment plan (which assets, why, how long, when to buy/sell) and follow am. Emotions na bad advisers.
  • Look future: Is 20% fall disaster or chance to buy cheap for long term? Is memecoin crazy rise opportunity to get rich or trap for last buyers? Answer depend on your strategy and analysis, not on feeling for moment.

Goal no be to turn robot. Goal be to understand your emotions, understand crowd emotions, and use dis knowledge make wise decisions wey go help your financial goals, no be de classic “buy at peak, sell at bottom” story. For 2025, you get tools pass before. Use dem well!

Useful Naija Crypto Resources

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